FORECASTING OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS OF THE HOTEL INDUSTRY OF UKRAINE IN THE POST-WAR PERIOD
Abstract
The article presents a study of the main indicators that influence the sustainable development of the hotel industry. The main representatives of the activity of this industry are collective accommodation enterprises (CCE), which include hotels and similar temporary accommodation establishments (for example, for the activities of individuals). The indicators that influence the development of the hotel industry primarily include: the volume of hospitality services, the number of collective accommodation facilities, the number of foreigners and residents of Ukraine who lived in the CCE. The determined indicators for the period 2009-2020 were analyzed. The representativeness of the set of statistical data was checked (for homogeneity and confirmation of the reliability of the formulated conclusions), that is, the coefficients of variation of the studied indicators were calculated. For the number of CCE d residents of Ukraine, the coefficient of variation was within 16,3-30,9%, which confirms the reliability of the forecasting of these indicators. For the volume of CCE services provided and the number of foreigners to whom these services were provided, the coefficient of variation is in a slightly different range, namely: 42,8-47,7%. This indicates that the judgment about these indicators may be somewhat opposite compared to the forecast. A verification of the statistical significance of the selected model for forecasting the volume of sales of hospitality services of the CCE was carried out. A similar check was carried out to forecast the number of collective accommodation facilities, the number of foreigners and residents of Ukraine living in the CCE. Extrapolation (forecasting) of statistical data was carried out using the method of average growth rates of indicators in the economic activity of the CCE, and a graph of average growth rates of indicators of the hotel industry for the period 2026-2031 was also constructed. The presented study of indicators of sustainable development of the hotel industry of Ukraine in the post-war period can be recommended for use in the educational process when considering issues of financial management at enterprises providing hospitality services, as well as for a practical assessment of the development of the hotel industry. Further research can be focused on deepening the study of the impact of hospitality enterprise indicators on the growth of the state budget.
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