METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES TO ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY OF ENERGY SOURCE DIVERSIFICATION UNDER CONDITIONS OF HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND MILITARY RISKS

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to provide a fundamental justification of methodological approaches and to develop the authors integral indicator for a comprehensive assessment of the economic efficiency of energy source diversification, which takes into account military risk factors, the actual level of decentralization of facilities, and the strategic value of energy resilience for the state. The study examines in detail the transformation processes of Ukraines energy system under the influence of large-scale armed aggression, which has caused a shift in priorities from economic profit to the physical survival of infrastructure, and identifies the lack of alternatives to the transition to a distributed generation model. The authors contribution consists in the development and theoretical justification of an integral indicator of strategic resilience and efficiency of diversification, which allows for a methodological transition from the assessment of purely commercial profit to the assessment of the value of the preserved energy potential of the system. The scientific novelty of the results lies in the improvement of the tools for assessing the feasibility of diversification by introducing a special coefficient of adaptive resilience, which mathematically integrates the degree of geographical decentralization and the level of fuel independence of generating capacities. The practical significance of the research results lies in the formation of a clear scale for interpreting the calculated values and a multi-criteria selection algorithm for investment projects, which provides government authorities and private investors with the opportunity to objectively justify capital investments in energy security. The main conclusion of the work is the proof that the proposed methodological approach allows for neutralizing the misconception about the excessive cost of decentralized sources, demonstrating their decisive role in ensuring the continuity of production processes, preserving the value added of the national economy, and overall strengthening the states resilience under conditions of constant military threats.