INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF THE INVESTMENT CLIMATE OF UKRAINE’S CONSTRUCTION COMPLEX IN THE CONTEXT OF POST-WAR RECOVERY
Abstract
The article develops a risk-adjusted approach to assessing the investment climate of Ukraine’s construction complex in the context of post-war recovery. The purpose is to integrate the assessment of baseline investment conditions, systemic barriers, key risks and market opportunities into a single analytical model. The study proposes an integrated investment climate index for the construction complex and interprets it through scenario modelling of the share of private capital in financing recovery projects. The article identifies the strongest barriers to investment, systematises the main risk groups, maps priority investment niches and analyses the emerging architecture of de-risking instruments in Ukraine, including EU guarantees, EBRD financing and war-risk insurance products. A risk-adjusted integral model is applied to three scenarios for 2026–2030. The calculations show that under baseline conditions in 2026 the adjusted investment climate index equals 0.358, which corresponds to a constrained but operational environment for segmented private-sector entry. Under the inertial scenario the adjusted index rises only to 0.417 by 2030, whereas under the managed recovery scenario it reaches 0.504 and under the accelerated integration scenario 0.596. The modelled share of private capital in financing recovery projects increases accordingly from 32.9% in 2026 to 35.8%, 40.2% and 44.8% in 2030. The practical value of the results lies in their applicability for public authorities, municipalities, developers, banks and international financial institutions when selecting de-risking instruments, preparing bankable projects and designing policies for mobilising private capital into reconstruction. The proposed framework may also be used to compare regional project environments and to prioritise reform measures with the highest marginal effect on investment mobilisation. The framework therefore links qualitative diagnosis with a transparent quantitative translation into expected private-sector participation and supports evidence-based decision-making in recovery policy.
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