ASYMMETRIES IN UKRAINE'S FOREIGN TRADE IN GOODS WITH THE USA AND CHINA

Abstract

In the globalized economy, trade relations between countries reflect not only the structure of their economic development but also the degree of mutual external trade dependence. For Ukraine, which is undergoing profound transformations, the analysis of asymmetries in foreign trade with the United States and China—key geoeconomic actors—acquires particular importance. Although neither the United States nor China is currently among Ukraine’s leading foreign trade partners, the development of interstate economic and scientific-technological cooperation requires the reduction of trade imbalances, which can be facilitated by assessing existing disparities in the dynamics and structure of Ukraine–US and Ukraine–China trade. Accordingly, the purpose of this article is to identify and analyze the key asymmetries in Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods with the United States and China in order to determine their nature, scale, and potential implications for the long-term development of interstate trade and economic relations. Based on an analysis of the dynamics and structure of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods with the United States and China in 2020–2024, the study confirms the existence of significant asymmetries in trade with both countries, in terms of trade values as well as the technological complexity of exports and imports. At the same time, a deeper and growing trade imbalance is observed in relations with China, indicating Ukraine’s dependence on Chinese imports. Additional analysis of price and quantity conditions of trade, using sunflower oil as an example, showed that 2020–2021 were the most favorable years for Ukraine, when global demand for food products increased. The subsequent years were characterized by instability due to shifts in global supply chains and the effects of military hostilities. Forecasting Ukraine’s export volumes to the United States through 2029 revealed a steady downward trend and a further intensification of trade asymmetries. The study substantiates that overcoming trade imbalances requires reorienting Ukraine’s exports toward products with higher technological complexity while simultaneously reducing dependence on imports of high-technology goods.